THE HAGUE, 27/11/04 - A big increase in prosperity remains a reasonable prospect in the coming decades, the Central Planning Bureau (CPB) concludes. It presented four scenarios for the Dutch economy for the period to 2040 on Friday.

Gross Domestic Product per head of the population will be at least 30 percent and at most 120 percent higher in 2040 than today. The pace of economic growth will strongly depend on international - and particularly European - development. It may be expected that growth of the Dutch economy will match that in the 15 older EU members, according to the CPB.

The scenarios with higher growth show greater inequalities of income and relatively low attention for the environment. Whatever happens, the distribution of employment over business sectors will continue to shift dramatically, specifically from agriculture and industry sectors to services and healthcare sectors, said the researchers.

The ageing population will pressure growth of the labour supply and employment, and the ratio between the active and the inactive. An increase in the participation of women and older people can however offer compensation. Both employment and labour productivity are about the same as those for Europe in the scenarios for the Netherlands.

The study is an elaboration of the Four Futures of Europe study published by the CPB in October 2003. The CPB also released two background studies Friday, 'Labour supply in the long-term scenarios for the Netherlands' and 'Four future scenarios for government and healthcare." ?