MAASTRICHT, 24/01/03 - The Christian democrats (CDA) will open negotiations on a governing coalition with Labour (PvdA) only to allow these to fail in due course, according to political scientist N. Baakman of Maastricht University. Eventually, the present center-right coalition will continue, he predicted yesterday.

Baakman believes that CDA leader Jan Peter Balkenende is forced to invite the PvdA to talks initially based on the election results. He will then first show his good intentions, but after long and difficult talks will eventually and despite earlier denials, say that continuing the coalition with the conservatives (VVD) and Pim Fortuyn List (LPF) is necessary in the national interest, according to the political scientist.

The big victim of the elections will be political renewal, Baakman believes. "If the PvdA does not join the government, virtually nothing will come of this. " He also points out that foreign newspapers wrote after the previous elections last May that the Netherlands had made a shift to the right. "But that did not really happen. "

Many of the Dutch voted strategically in Wednesday's parliamentary elections, to ensure that either PvdA or CDA would become the biggest party. The Socialist Party (SP) particularly, for which 20 seats were predicted three weeks ago, suffered from switching to PvdA, Baakman concludes.

The high election turnout (79.9 percent) shows that people have become more interested in politics, according to Baakman. "The Fortuyn effect has taken root," he said.