RIJSWIJK, 24/01/03 - The three big opinion pollsters missed the target in forecasting the election results. Interview-NSS, NIPO and Maurice de Hond all three incorrectly forecast that labour (PvdA) would be the biggest party.

The Christian democrats (CDA), who won 44 seats Wednesday, was awarded two seats too few by all three in their polls. PvdA, winning 42 seats, was conversely awarded one to two seats too many by all three. Pim Fortuyn List (LPF), eventually winning 8 seats, was systematically awarded one to two seats too few.

Interview-NSS scored best. On the last day before the elections, it forecast the right number of seats for the conservatives (VVD) at 28, leftwing Greens (GroenLinks) at 9, Socialist Party (SP) at 9, center-left (D66) at 6, the orthodox Christian SGP at 2 and Liveable Netherlands at zero. It was slightly out on the CDA, LPF and PvdA.

Remarkably, Maurice de Hond, the only one to conduct a poll on election day, was actually farthest away from the actual result. He had been closer on the previous day than two hours before polling stations closed, when he gave the CDA 42 seats and PvdA, 44, exactly the reverse order. He also missed the target with the VVD (30), GroenLinks (6) and SP (11).

NIPO was much too high with the SP (13). The bureau was however the only one to predict orthodox Christian party ChristenUnie's three seats correctly in its last poll.