THE HAGUE, 24/01/03 - The Christian democrats (CDA) emerged from Wednesday's elections as the biggest party after all, capturing 44 Lower House seats and beating Labour (PvdA)'s 42 seats. The two will now most likely try to form a government together, but the question is, whether this will succeed.

PvdA wants to be in government, and technically, the CDA of caretaker Premier Jan Peter Balkenende is its only possible partner. But Balkenende, who will remain premier, sees nothing in favor of the social democrats. He has the backup option of a three-party coalition with the conservatives (VVD), supplemented by the center-left (D66) or Pim Fortuyn List (LPF).

Balkenende had hoped for a CDA-VVD coalition, but this option collapsed as VVD only won 28 seats. Without a third party, the two would only have 72 seats, four short of an absolute majority in the 150-seat parliament.

Based on the election results, efforts will most probably be made to create a CDA-PvdA government. A majority of the party leaders will today recommend such a center-left coalition to Queen Beatrix, who had already taken soundings from the vice-chairman of the Council of State and the Upper and Lower House Speakers yesterday.

In a night-time debate after the elections, Balkenende declined to say whether he would approach PvdA in the first instance. He let slip that he was interested in a coalition with VVD and D66, but it is doubtful whether the latter is prepared to cooperate.

D66 leader Thom de Graaf announced his resignation as party leader immediately after the results. His party, in the dim and distant past good for 24 seats, has now sunk to 6 from 7 seats. De Graaf was succeeded yesterday by MP Boris Dittrich, who said his party would join the opposition. But in reaction to similar statements by other D66 MPs, Balkenende had already remarked in the night-time debate that "perhaps we just have to drink a cup of coffee with one another. "

The question is also whether VVD still wants to be in government. Party leader Gerrit Zalm was disappointed with its modest gain of 4 seats, and is considering a role in opposition. Zalm's position within VVD is not in question; his MPs unanimously re-elected him as their leader yesterday.

If the formation of a coalition with PvdA fails, Balkenende can also still fall back on a continuation of the coalition with VVD and LPF. LPF plunged yesterday to 8 from 26 seats, but is close to CDA and VVD in terms of policies. Continuing the present coalition, earlier described by Balkenende as "implausible," will however only be considered after a lengthy, failed attempt to form a government with PvdA.

In many areas, the differences between PvdA and CDA are great. PvdA will have to compromise one way or another in negotiations, as it has no other possible partners. A coalition with the leftwing Greens (GroenLinks) and Socialist Party (SP) which both won 9 seats on Wednesday, would be 6 seats short of a majority and was in any case ruled out earlier by PvdA leader Wouter Bos.