THE HAGUE, 21/01/03 - If tomorrow's elections were held yesterday, Labour (PvdA) would become the biggest party with 45 Lower House seats, just ahead of the Christian democrats (CDA) at 43, according to pollster Maurice de Hond's daily survey. The conservatives (VVD) would obtain 27 seats.

The PvdA, which now has 23 seats in the 150-member Lower House, is continuing to pull voters away from the other leftwing parties. According to De Hond, the Socialists (SP), once at 22 seats in his poll, would now only keep 12 seats, although this is 3 more than they currently have. The leftwing Greens (GroenLinks) would drop from 10 to 6 seats and the center-left D66 from 7 to 4.

The Pim Fortuyn List would drop from 26 to 7 seats. The orthodox Christian parties ChristenUnie and SGP are seen keeping their 4 and 2 seats respectively. Liveable Netherlands (LN) would not return to the House.

De Hond claims a small majority of the Dutch would prefer CDA leader Balkenende (51 percent) as premier to the PvdA's candidate Job Cohen (49 percent). One in four voters consider Cohen's previous role as state secretary in former Prime Minister Wim Kok's 'purple' cabinet makes him unsuitable for the job. Resistance to Cohen is biggest among LPF voters.

If the PvdA becomes the biggest party in tomorrow's election, a coalition government with CDA will be likely. If the CDA emerges the winner, it will form a cabinet with the VVD if this combination has a majority. If not, CDA may prefer forming a three party coalition with VVD and D66, ChristenUnie or the LPF to joining hands with the PvdA.

In any case, the key to successful coalition talks is in CDA leader Balkenende's hands, as no government can be made without his party. The possibility cannot be excluded that Balkenende will first negotiate with the PvdA and then have the talks explode in order to make a coalition with VVD and a third party possible after all. The central question appears to be whether the two dare to take their chance with the LPF again.