AMSTERDAM, 14/01/03 - Less than two weeks before the elections, the question arises which government the Netherlands will get after 22 January. The chances of the Christian democrats (CDA) being part of the cabinet is substantial. But will they work in partnership with labour (PvdA) or the conservatives (VVD)?

During the election campaign, the CDA and VVD have stated repeatedly that they want to govern again together. If they achieve a combined majority in the 150-seat Lower House, and one of them emerges the largest party, coalition negotiations could be clinched quickly. But if they fail to achieve a majority, the question is whether they will want to solve the problem with a third partner.

Both parties have indicated a strong preference for a two-party coalition for the sake of a stable government. Their present coalition partner Pim Fortuyn List (LPF) is no longer welcome, according to CDA leader Jan Peter Balkenende. "It would be very implausible to continue with the same coalition," he said in Trouw newspaper yesterday. Balkenende also sees nothing in a minority government of CDA and VVD with support from the LPF.

The possibility of a CDA-VVD coalition with the center-left (D66) is also fading. D66 leader Thom de Graaf announced last weekend that his party is not available for participation in any coalition if it does not achieve more than its present 7 seats on 22 January. To date, D66 has been losing ground in the polls.

Much depends on the question of who will be the biggest party and thus allowed to initiate coalition negotiations. If this is the PvdA, it will most likely approach the CDA. PvdA leader Bos has already said he does not want a leftwing government with the Socialist Party (SP) and leftwing Greens (GroenLinks) or D66, and that partnership with Balkenende would then be unavoidable.

If the PvdA as largest party has a majority with the CDA, there appears to be a realistic chance that Balkenende will take up Bos' invitation. If the PvdA is the largest party but does not have a majority with the CDA, a scenario might arise of those two partnering with the VVD. This would however inevitably require many compromises, which nobody favors.