THE HAGUE, 11/03/03 - Labour (PvdA) will make modest gains in the provincial council elections being held today, pollster Maurice de Hond predicts. He said the conservatives (VVD) will lose ground, with the Christian democrats (CDA) stabilizing.

The provincial councillors elected today will in turn determine the composition of the Upper House on 26 May. De Hond expects the CDA to have 20 Senators, the same as in 1999. The PvdA will gain two seats, giving it 17, with the VVD dropping from 19 to 16 seats, he predicts. The Pim Fortuyn List (LPF) will make its debut with 2 seats. The leftwing Greens (GroenLinks) will drop from 8 to 5 seats, with the Socialist Party climbing from 2 to 5 seats.

Neither CDA plus VVD nor CDA plus PvdA would have a majority in the 75-seat Senate as a result of this outcome. For the coalition negotiations between CDA and PvdA, it is important that they do have support from the Upper House in order to achieve a fruitful collaboration with parliament.