HILVERSUM, 10/01/03 - Labour (PvdA) are continuing to win and the Christian democrats (CDA) beginning to lose support from voters, according to the daily poll by pollster Maurice de Hond. He ascribed no less than 38 Lower House seats to the PvdA yesterday, with the CDA dropping to 40.

The 38 seats would give the PvdA 15 more than it currently holds in the Lower House, and 2 more than in De Hond's previous poll on Wednesday. De Hond concludes from the PvdA's continuing gains that party leader Wouter Bos made a good impression in Wednesday evening's one-on-one TV debate with CDA leader Balkenende on the Nederland 2 channel. Bos had to defend himself against strong attacks from Balkenende on what he called unsound financial policy.

The 40 seats forecast for the CDA means a loss of 3 from its present 43 seats in parliament. The figure is also sharply down from recent polls giving the party up to 52 MPs.

De Hond puts the conservatives (VVD) at 30 seats, 6 more than they now have. The VVD and CDA would then together hold 70 seats, not enough for a majority in the 150-seat parliament. A CDA-PvdA coalition would however have a majority, with 78 seats.

The CDA has a strong preference for a partnership with the VVD, but if the PvdA becomes the largest party, it will have the right to make the invitations to coalition talks. The premier would also then be from the PvdA, though Bos has already said he would not take the job himself. The names of Amsterdam Mayor Job Cohen and his Tilburg counterpart Johan Stekelenburg have been circulating in the corridors in this connection, as has that of former Home Affairs Minister Bram Peper.

Jan Marijnissen's Socialist Party (SP) appears to have peaked too early. At end-December, the SP stood at 21 seats in De Hond's polls, but has now dropped to 15 - though this is still a big gain from the party's present 9 seats. The Pim Fortuyn List (LPF) of Mat Herben, who crossed swords with Marijnissen in Wednesday's TV debate, is put at 7 seats, up one from De Hond's previous poll, but still down 19 from the LPF's current 26 seats.